Berkshire Hathaway Predicts Major Turning Point for Homebuyers
Fall 2025 could mark a significant opportunity for New Jersey buyers as national housing trends signal a market pivot
Despite two recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the U.S. housing market—including right here in New Jersey—has remained frustratingly stagnant for both buyers and sellers. But according to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, we may be approaching a pivotal turning point that could benefit Garden State homebuyers who’ve been waiting on the sidelines.
The Economic Backdrop
After inflation peaked near 9% in 2022, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to cool spending and bring prices under control. While inflation has since eased, mortgage rates haven’t responded as expected. Instead of dropping below 6% as many hoped, rates climbed back toward 7%, creating ongoing uncertainty that discouraged both buyers and sellers from making moves.
However, recent Federal Reserve actions—including quarter-point rate cuts in both September and October 2025 that lowered the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%—have sparked renewed optimism. As of early November, mortgage rates were reported at 6.32%, according to the Mortgage Research Network.
Four Key Indicators Point to Change
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices has identified four critical market conditions in fall 2025 that suggest the tide may be turning in favor of homebuyers:
1. Housing Supply is Growing: For 22 consecutive months, housing inventory has been increasing, giving buyers more options than they’ve had in years.
2. Home Prices are Stagnating: After years of dramatic increases, home price growth has essentially flatlined across many markets.
3. Price Cuts are Accelerating: More sellers are reducing asking prices to attract serious buyers, creating opportunities for negotiation.
4. Mortgage Rates are Contracting: While still higher than the historic lows of 2020-2021, rates are trending downward, improving affordability.
What This Means for New Jersey Buyers
Following what experts describe as the slowest spring-summer housing market in decades, conditions are finally moving toward a more balanced relationship between buyers and sellers. For New Jersey homebuyers who’ve been priced out or discouraged by high rates, this could represent your best opportunity in years. However, success will depend on 2 critical questions:
- Will buyers seize this opportunity and return to the market?
- Will sellers adjust their expectations to meet current conditions?
Regional Markets Tell Different Stories
While national trends provide the big picture, local markets vary significantly—and New Jersey’s housing dynamics differ from national averages in important ways.
The Austin Example: A Cautionary Tale
Austin, Texas offers a striking example of market volatility. Once the poster child for pandemic-era migration with its Live Music Capital appeal, tech industry growth, and Sun Belt lifestyle, Austin experienced a 30% year-over-year surge in home prices in 2021.
But what goes up doesn’t always stay up. When interest rates doubled and developers flooded the market with new construction, Austin shifted dramatically into a buyer’s market. Since August 2022, the city’s median home price has declined by 15%. New builds now account for 24% of Austin’s inventory—well above the national average of 17.3%.
The Florida Story: Boom to Bust
Florida metros, once synonymous with population growth and rising home values, now dominate the list of steepest price declines. Seven of the 10 metros with the largest year-over-year drops are in Florida, including:
- Punta Gorda: -12%
- Cape Coral: -10%
By mid-2025, home prices had declined in 110 of the nation’s 300 largest metro areas—more than three times the 31 metros that saw drops at the start of the year. Southern and Western markets are experiencing the steepest corrections, with 19 of the 50 largest markets now trading below their July 2022 price levels.