The Netflix Factor
The streaming giant’s planned massive production facility in Monmouth County will create what industry experts describe as a “sandwich effect” on the counties adjacent to downtown Manhattan. As Netflix establishes its East Coast production hub, it will draw entertainment industry professionals who previously concentrated in Los Angeles and Manhattan. This influx will likely increase demand for luxury housing in Monmouth, Ocean, and Middlesex counties, creating additional pressure on an already tight inventory market.
Ocean County, home to the headquarters of Counsellors Title Agency in Toms River, is positioned to benefit significantly from these broader market forces. While not directly adjacent to Manhattan, the county offers compelling value propositions for buyers priced out of closer-in markets. The county’s median home price of $485,000 represents exceptional value compared to Hudson County’s $685,000, while still providing reasonable commuting options to Manhattan via NJ Transit. Luxury waterfront properties along the Toms River and Barnegat Bay have seen particular interest from buyers seeking weekend retreats that could potentially become primary residences.
The Epidemic of Inventory Shortages
The inventory constraints that are driving Manhattan’s luxury market boom—few development sites, height restrictions in historic areas, and boutique buildings with limited units—are mirrored in New Jersey’s desirable communities. Bergen County has only 2.1 months of luxury inventory available, and single-family homes just 1.8 months-supply, well below the 6-month supply considered balanced. This scarcity is driving competitive bidding situations and pushing prices higher across the luxury spectrum. The market scarcity is not something that was even imagined, for in just 7 years, inventory has plummeted from 3,998 in September 2018, to the paltry 794 in March, 2025.
Transportation infrastructure improvements are amplifying New Jersey’s appeal. The Gateway Tunnel project, once completed, will significantly improve rail capacity between New Jersey and Manhattan, making commutes more reliable and attractive. Current NJ Transit ridership from key luxury markets like Westfield, Summit, and Morristown to Manhattan has increased 15% since 2023, indicating growing comfort with the commute among high-earning professionals.
Mortgage and financing patterns reflect this market evolution. Jumbo loan originations in New Jersey increased 18% in 2024, with a significant portion going to buyers relocating from Manhattan. The average loan size for luxury properties in Bergen County reached $1.2 million, up from $950,000 in 2023. These buyers typically bring substantial cash reserves, with down payments averaging 35% of purchase price, well above the national average.
New York Taxes and Cost of Living
There are definitely some unique tax implications within this shift that cannot be overlooked. New Jersey’s property tax burden, while significant, often represents substantial savings compared to Manhattan’s combination of property taxes, maintenance fees, and flip taxes. A $3 million home in Bergen County might carry annual property taxes of $45,000, while a comparable Manhattan condominium could cost $35,000 in taxes plus $60,000 in maintenance fees, creating a $50,000 annual savings for the New Jersey buyer.
Looking forward, the trends suggest this market evolution is in its early stages rather than its conclusion. As Manhattan’s downtown luxury market continues to mature and inventory remains constrained, New Jersey’s position as an alternative for sophisticated buyers will likely strengthen. The combination of Netflix’s production facility, continued tech and finance migration downtown, and New Jersey’s fundamental value proposition creates a compelling long-term outlook for the state’s luxury residential market.
The Manhattan downtown boom is not just a Manhattan story—it’s reshaping residential real estate across the entire region, with New Jersey positioned as a primary beneficiary of this seismic shift in how and where high-net-worth individuals choose to live.