Vermont: A State Adrift
Vermont saw a temporary influx of newcomers during the pandemic, largely driven by remote workers seeking less congested living environments. However, this trend was short-lived due to several enduring challenges:
- Housing Market Constraints: A tight housing market hindered long-term population growth. Vermont needs up to 36,000 new homes by 2029 to meet demand and replace housing lost to issues like flooding.
- Aging Population: Vermont has one of the oldest populations in the U.S. and the lowest fertility rate, further straining its workforce. Between 2020 and 2023, the working-age population shrank while the senior population grew significantly.
- Economic Impacts: The declining working-age demographic poses economic challenges, as fewer workers are available to sustain the state’s economy and tax base.
Despite efforts to attract new residents, including international immigrants, Vermont continues to lose more people to other states than it gains. This reversal of pandemic-era migration highlights the difficulty rural states face in retaining young talent and revitalizing their economies.
New Jersey: A Model of Growth
In stark contrast, New Jersey has emerged as a leader in population and economic growth in the Northeast:
- Population Surge: As of 2025, New Jersey’s population reached an all-time high of approximately 9.5 million residents, marking a 1.3% year-over-year increase from 2023. Since April 2020, the state has gained over 211,000 new residents.
- Job Market Expansion: New Jersey recorded 4,391,600 jobs as of November 2024, along with 284,200 employers—the highest figures in its history. This robust job market continues to attract workers and businesses alike.
- Sustained Growth: The state’s consistent upward trajectory reflects its ability to adapt to post-pandemic realities while fostering a favorable environment for economic development.
Lessons for Rural States
The contrasting experiences of Vermont and New Jersey underscore key strategies for sustainable growth:
- Housing Development: Addressing housing shortages is critical for attracting new residents.
- Workforce Retention: Policies that support working-age adults, such as affordable childcare and job opportunities, can help counteract aging populations.
- Infrastructure Investments: Expanding broadband access and creating remote work-friendly communities can attract younger professionals.
While Vermont faces an uphill battle to reverse its demographic decline, New Jersey’s success demonstrates how targeted policies can drive growth even in challenging times.
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