Affordability, Inventory and DOM

As these figures prove, the inventory crisis, is no longer a crisis in the sense that we are expecting to see some relief in the not too distant future. Now, for the last nine consecutive quarters, inventory has fallen, on a national basis, and in New Jersey, has cratered.

Shortages also known as scarcity always impacts price; and in this case, the shortage is being reflected in affordability and in the DOM also known as days on market.

The share of homes still on the market after two months is now at its lowest since 2012.

Over the past five years, in 2012, 57% of homes were still on the market after two months; in 2017, 47% of homes were still on the market after two months.

Slow Moving Markets
The slowest moving markets are predominantly in the South and Northeast. Each of the top 10 slowest moving markets are east of the Mississippi, with the highest concentration in Florida and South Carolina. For example, more than 54% of homes are still on the market after two months in three large Florida metros – Sarasota (54.2% and number ten on our list), Cape Coral-Fort Myers (56.3% and number six on our list), and Miami (62.3% and number one on our list), while two of the largest markets in North Carolina – Winston-Salem (57.5%) and Greensboro-High Point (57.2%) – make the top five. The other two markets to make the top five slowest moving markets are Fairfield County, Conn., (60.8%) and Knoxville, Tenn., (57.4%).

Tight Inventory Holding Market Back

And Speeding Up Time-To-Closing

Nationally, U.S. home inventory has fallen 8.9% in the second quarter of 2017 from the same period in 2016. Domestically, inventory is 20% less than it was five years ago. Again, these figures are not an anomaly, as this trend has continued unabated for nine consecutive quarters. Inline image 1

New Jersey single family real estate inventory has fallen significantly more, from 48,730 to 39,009, a 19.9% drop in the last 12 months. In the area of condos and townhouses, that drop was calculated to be nearly 23%, and for adult housing, a drop of 23.7%.

The inventory shortage is in part due to the stripping away of available properties without the addition of replacement housing.

In addition, the tight inventory has not been able to expect sufficient supply coming from the construction industry, which is still reticent about risks associated with the same kind of ebullient confidence that caused their own industry to crater last time.

Concurrently, there is a very significant skilled labor shortage within their industry.

According to a number of research sources, homes are spending less time on the market than at any other period in the last 10 years.

In New Jersey, back in 2011, the average single family home would spend 109 days on the market before closing. Today, that number has fallen to just 62, as of July 2017.

Trulia reported that “57% of homes in 2012 were still on the market after two months while today that number stands at 47%.”

The Trulia Inventory and Price Watch [TIPW], found that, on average, metros with the largest decreases in inventory over the past five years have also seen significantly fewer homes on the market after two months.

The TIPW also reported the following facts affecting the housing stock nationally and in the 100 largest U.S. metros from Q2 2012 to Q2 2017:

  • Nationally, the number of starter and trade-up homes on the market has decreased substantially, falling 15.6% and 13.1% respectively, during the past year, while inventory of premium homes has fallen 3.9%.
  • The disproportional drop in starter and trade-up home inventory is making affordability a greater stretch for first-time homebuyers.
  • Starter and trade-up homebuyers need to spend 3.1% and 1.7% more of their income than in 2016.
  • Premium homebuyers only need to shell out 0.9% more of their income than in 2016.
  • Falling inventory is strongly correlated with how long homes stay on the market. On average, the more a market’s housing inventory has fallen over the past five years the fewer share of homes are still on the market after two months.


Real Estate Hashtags

Using hashtags can get you in front of those targeting specific niches.

If you are going to use a Real Estate Hashtag, definitely hashtag your farm area, as in the case of Toms River, New Jersey – #TomsRiver and #TomsRiverNJ.

By hashtagging a specific area, you are positioning yourself as an expert in that area. It will give you a reason for people to contact you. People who live or want to live in your farm neighborhood will seek you out, but also don’t forget to use graphics along with your hashtag. Putting a picture of a beautiful home for a great price should generate a lot of traffic.

The idea is to demonstrate that you know the neighborhood and are also involved in the neighborhood.

Here are some suggested hashtags:


Possible Face-Off Between Zillow and Facebook

Facebook Launches New Real Estate Ad Platform

This past week, Facebook announced that it launched its first ad product designed specifically for residential real estate brokerages.

“Dynamic Ads for Real Estate,” first reported by real estate news site Inman News, allow real estate brokers and agents to advertise directly to Facebook and Instagram users who have already searched for properties on that brokerage’s website. The product goes after a key money-maker for Seattle-based Zillow, which allows real estate professionals to advertise to prospective home buyers and sellers on its site.

The new Dynamic Ad real estate product is served on Facebook and Instagram accounts and then the product automatically shows the user relevant listings from the brokerage’s inventory.

According to Facebook, they believe that the real estate ad market holds a great deal of opportunity which will function as a great content feed for consumers looking for real estate properties in a context they are familiar with.

There is one problem: in October 2016, Zillow also launched its new feature that permits its premier agents to advertise to Facebook users under a partnership.

Currently, Zillow is the number one real estate brand. Facebook is clearly looking to take greater control over this advertising nice, which promises only to get much bigger.


Real Estate Hashtags

Here are a few more Real Estate Hashtags from Counsellors Title Agency:


TODAY – First-Time Home Buyer Seminar

First-Time Home Buyer Seminar

325 W. Water Street, 3rd Floor, (Conference Room) Toms River, NJ 08753
Justin Petruzziello –

Phishing Attacks Increase 65 Percent

Phishing Attacks Increase Dramatically Posing Threat to Businesses

The Anti-Phishing Working Group (APWG) found phishing attacks have been dramatically rising since 2004 with a 65% increase from 2015 to 2016.

■ The number of cyber-attacks: 2004 – 1,609
■ The number of cyber-attacks: 2015  – 793,340
■ The number of cyber-attacks: 2016 – 1,220,523
■ 30% of phishing emails are opened
■ 90% of phishing attacks contain ransomware

There is another form of terrorism being perpetrated today: this is cyber-terrorism or cyber-attacks. Since virtually all businesses today maintain an online presence and even ecommerce gateway, all businesses are vulnerable to attack.

All businesses, regardless of their size or function, profit or non-profit, are at risk today from cyber attack, especially in the form of phishing.

Phishing is a form of fraud in which the attacker tries to learn information such as login credentials or account information by masquerading as a reputable entity or person in email, IM or other communication channels. Typically a victim receives a message that appears to have been sent by a known contact or organization. An attachment or links in the message may install malware on the user’s device or direct them to a malicious website set up to trick them into divulging personal and financial information, such as passwords, account IDs or credit card details.

The attacks are clothed in what appear to be legitimate emails seeking to have employees provide them with access to their business systems.

They accomplish this by getting them to click on a link in an email. This method of cyber-attack is known as phishing — and it’s only going to increase. Some reports cite that 91% of hacking attacks start with phishing emails. Employees must be trained to recognize that emails asking for sensitive data such as passwords and personal information are most likely phishing emails that employees must recognize.

According to some studies, up to 97% of individuals are not sophisticated or educated enough to identify a phishing email. This puts most businesses at risk for fraud, or even worse, the digital capitulation of their businesses.

Estimates put the cost of such cyber-frauds at about $500 million annually. This is expected to increase as the number of attacks and the sophistication increases.

July Ocean and Monmouth County Sales

Single Family Ocean County July 2017
Metrics           2016     2017     Change
New Listings  1,248    1,172       – 6.1%
Closed Sales     680      631        – 7.2%
Days to Close      82        76        – 7.3%
Median Px      $280K $285K        + 1.8%
% of Px Recd   96.8%   96.7%   – 0.1%
Inventory         5,577     4,374   – 21.9%
Months Supply   9.7         6.7    – 30.9%

Single Family Monmouth County July 2017
Metrics            2016     2017      Change
New Listings  1,013   1,040        + 2.7%
Closed Sales      661      625         – 5.4%
Days to Close      58        54         – 6.9%
Median Px       $420K $430K       + 2.4%
% of Px Recd    97.0%   97.9%    + 0.9%
Inventory       4,023    3,098       – 23.0%
Months Supply  7.7         5.2       – 32.5%




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